Mikhail Alexandrovich Semenov,
Candidate of Historical Sciences, Institute of History of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Nowosibirsk, Russia, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The Method of Quantitative Analysis of the Impact of the Quality of Medical Activities of Healthcare on the Mortality of the Population During the Great Patriotic War
DOI: 10.31518/2618-9100-2024-3-16
It is difficult to overestimate the relevance of studying the demographic aspects of the Great Patriotic War. The most important component of demographic processes is the mortality of the population. The dynamics of mortality of the civilian population of the USSR during the Great Patriotic War can be divided into two major stages: an increase in mortality in 1941–1942 and its sharp decrease in 1943–1945. If the increase in mortality inthe conditions of the outbreak of hostilities is quite logical, then the decrease in mortality in a country leading the most severe war in its history looks paradoxical. Researchers have done considerable work in studying this problem. At the same time, the question of the reasons for these changes is still unresolved. Clarifying the contribution of various factors to reducing mortality during the Great Patriotic War remains an urgent task of historical demography. The actual purpose of the article is to find a method that allows us to evidence-based determine the impact of the quality of medical activity on the mortality of the population. The proposed method makes it possible, in conditions of a lack of statistical data, to establish the role of the contribution of changes in the quality of medical care activities to changes in population mortality, to assess the increase in the quality of treatment of patients. The method is based not on correlation, but on direct dependence. Using the proposed method, the influence of changes in the quality of medical activity on the mortality of the population for the RSFSR in 1945 in comparison with 1944 and for Western Siberia in 1945 in comparison with the period of 1943 is revealed. Data from Western Siberia indicate that the impact of the quality of medical activity on the radical reduction of mortality in the middle of the war was relatively small and, accordingly, further search for the factors that caused such a radical transformation is necessary. Apparently, a sharp decrease in morbidity played a key role in this process. At the same time, the data on the territory of the RSFSR, despite some inaccuracy, indicate that the gradual decrease in mortality at the end of the war, on the contrary, had its source primarily in improving the quality of medical activities. It is obvious that in order to clarify the conclusions obtained, an analysis using the proposed method of other territories in various chronological frames is necessary. Of course, further statistical elaboration of the proposed method is also necessary.
Publishing: 28/06/2024
The article has been received by the editor on 01/06/2024
How to cite: Semenov M.A. The Method of Quantitative Analysis of the Impact of the Quality of Medical Activities of Healthcare on the Mortality of the Population During the Great Patriotic War // Historical Courier, 2024, No. 3 (35), pp. 208–222. [Available online: http://istkurier.ru/data/2024/ISTKURIER-2024-1-16.pdf]
The article was completed on the topic of the state assignment “Socio-Economic Potential of the Eastern Regions of Russia in the 20th – Early 21st Centuries: Management Strategies and Practices, Dynamics, Geopolitical Context” (FWZM-2024-0005).
Links: Issue 3 2024
Keywords: mortality; lethality; healthcare; medical activities; statistical methods; The Great Patriotic War; cliometry