Sokolovskiy Ivan R.,
Candidate of Historical Sciences, Institute of History of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Novosibirsk,Russia, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The Population of Siberia in the 17th Century: the Existing Approaches to the Problem of the Mathematical Model of Population
DOI: 10.31518/2618-9100-2019-4-2
The article dicuseses the problem of mathematical model of population growth in Siberiain the 17th century. Some issues were put forward in our works of 2016. Several scholars tried to construct a model of population growth of the entire globe in a period of known human history and predict how this growth will develop in the future and the results it could produce. We discuss the works of S.P. Kapitsa and E.D. Grazhdannikov. One of the first works of this kind was the article by von Foerster, Mora, and Amiot (1960), which, despite it sempirical character, had the predictive power for about 30 years. In 1974 the Novosibirsk researcher E.D. Grazhdannikov tried to put together all the types of equations in one book. He discusses the population dynamics for a minimum four different cases (lack of growth, linear growth, exponential growth and hyperbolic growth). In 1999 a monograph by S.P. Kapitsa was published, in which he summed up some of his research activities and where he proposed its own periodization of demographic history and substantiated a number of its constants, as well as a number of equations, describing the dynamics of population grow that different stages of human history. In 2016 we made a number of attempts to select some equations to describe the dynamics of the Russian population of Siberia in the 17th century. We selected three models and assembled them in to one table the possible results of these retrospective forecasts.
Publishing: 30/08/2019
How to cite: Sokolovskiy I.R. The Population of Siberia in the 17th Century: the Existing Approaches to the Problem of the Mathematical Model of Population // Historical Courier, 2019, # 4 (6). Article 2. URL: http://istkurier.ru/data/2019/ISTKURIER-2019-4-02.pdf
Links: Issue 4 2019
Keywords: population; Siberia; 17th century; mathematical models; historiography; linear model; hyperbolic model; natural growth